Fanatics Collect listed the Art Academy Mudkip PSA 10 population at 2 in September 2026, based on a cert check dated September 8. Press coverage said 3, and Polkastarter reports that Goldin's October lot title said 3 as well. A pop report is a running count kept by one grader, so each figure may have been accurate on the date someone checked it.
The card is the PSA 10 2015 Pokémon Japanese XY Promo Art Academy Daisuke Ochiai Mudkip #XY-P. According to ICv2, a copy sold for $4.88 million as the top lot of Goldin's Pokémon 30th Anniversary Auction, which ICv2 dates October 25, 2026. That auction brought in more than $28 million and set 18 records. The Polkastarter blog breaks the price down as a $4,000,000 hammer plus Goldin's 22% buyer's premium, after 73 bids, with the lot closing after midnight ET on October 26.
Around a month before that, on September 25, a different PSA 10 copy sold for $3.72 million at Fanatics Collect. The two sales and the coverage around them don't agree on how many PSA 10s exist. For a card at this price level, the difference between two and three matters.
The paper trail, in date order
| Date | Venue or outlet | PSA cert | Price (with premium) | Stated PSA 10 count | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nov 22, 2024 | Fanatics Collect Premier, lot 48 | 94106406 | $42,000 (42 bids) | "Only two examples" submitted to PSA, both 10s (cert checked active 11/05/24) | | Sept 25, 2026 | Fanatics Collect Premier, lot 39 | 78687479 | $3,720,000 (61 bids) | Population of 2 (cert active as of 09/08/2026) | | Sept 27, 2026 | Sports Illustrated, on the Fanatics sale | n/a | n/a | "Limited to a POP 3" | | Sept 2026 (page undated) | Otia, on the Fanatics sale | n/a | n/a | "Only three examples" | | Late Oct 2026 | Goldin Pokémon 30th Anniversary Auction | 176246498 (per Polkastarter) | $4,880,000 (73 bids, per Polkastarter) | One of three, per Polkastarter's report of the lot title | | Nov 2, 2026 | Sports Illustrated, on the Goldin sale | n/a | n/a | "Only three PSA 10 examples reported" |
The November 2024 Fanatics listing said: "Only two examples of this card have been submitted for PSA grading, both of which have received a PSA 10 holder." It also said the owner of the other PSA 10 hadn't been identified, and it mentioned collector rumors that two raw copies had been confirmed. That copy sold for $42,000. Polkastarter gives the sale date as November 21, and the listing page says November 22.
The September 2026 listing showed a PSA 10 population of 2. Its eye-appeal rating read "PSA Population 1 of 2," and it said the cert was active as of 09/08/2026. Two days after the sale, Sports Illustrated wrote about the same auction and said "only three of them have ever received a Gem MT grade." Otia also reported that "only three examples have received a PSA 10 grade." So the figure of three was in print while the seller's own page still said two.
After the Goldin sale, SI's November 2 roundup said there were "only three PSA 10 examples reported in PSA's population reports." Polkastarter reports that Goldin's lot title described the copy as one of three PSA 10s. Polkastarter reads the Goldin copy as the newest addition to PSA's census and notes that "three different PSA 10 certs have now sold publicly."
Why two and three can both be honest
A pop report doesn't stay fixed. Every new grading changes it, and a listing captures it only on the day the seller checked. The Fanatics listing says its cert was active as of September 8. If PSA graded another copy after that date, the count would rise to three without making the Fanatics listing wrong. That's the most likely reading of the record, and it fits Polkastarter's view that the Goldin copy is the newest PSA 10. No source we read confirms when any of these copies was graded, so treat it as an explanation, not a finding.
Timing also doesn't explain everything neatly. SI and Otia said three within days of a listing that said two. One possibility is that a copy was graded in that gap. Another is that the outlets and the seller were counting from different snapshots. The record doesn't settle which.
What a pop report counts
A population report counts grading events at one company. It doesn't count physical cards that exist. CGC says this directly on its census page: its reports "only reflect the quantities and types of collectibles previously graded by the CCG Companies," are "not an indicator of value or rarity," and "should not be relied upon for the purpose of making a purchase or an investment." That disclaimer comes from CGC, but the same logic applies to any grader's report, PSA's included. PSA's count says nothing about copies sitting in other companies' slabs or copies that were never submitted.
Three distinct certs have appeared in public sales: 94106406, 78687479 and 176246498. Different cert numbers mean different slabs. They don't prove on their own that there are three different physical cards.
How resubmissions and crossovers can move the count
Collectors have argued about pop accuracy for years. In a 2006 Collectors Universe forum thread, one user said the report isn't updated when a card is "graded then broken out and regraded." Another wrote, "I think alot more crack an re-submit then you think," and said resubmitters "DO NOT tend to send the lables back in." A third pushed back: "most that do, tend to send in the labels so they can have the pop report updated." This is collector testimony, not data, but it describes how a single card can leave more than one entry behind.
Crossovers can also change the count. PSA's FAQ lists Crossover as a service offered only through Classic Submission. A card that crosses from another grader into a PSA holder enters PSA's count, while any copies that stay in other slabs remain outside it.
No source shows that any Art Academy Mudkip copy was cracked, resubmitted or crossed over. These are general ways pop reports drift, and they aren't claims about this card. If you're bidding at this level, it's a fair question to ask the seller.
The 100-copy cap
Both Fanatics listings say the Ochiai Mudkip was one of 10 winning artworks from the 2015 Pokémon Art Academy Competition in Japan, and that each winner received 100 copies of their card. That makes 100 Daisuke Ochiai Mudkips worldwide. A PSA 10 count of 2 or 3 measures how many copies have been graded at that level. It doesn't measure how many exist. The 2024 listing itself mentioned rumored raw copies. Graded copies can lower the price ceiling as new ones surface, and other winners' cards showed the same pattern at Goldin, where ICv2 reports that PSA 10 Art Academy Sableye and Gourgeist cards each sold for $976,000.
Prices around Mudkip were also hot going into the September sale. SI and Otia report that a PSA 10 2004 EX Team Rocket Returns Gold Star Mudkip sold for $1,020,000 in a Fanatics Weekly auction a few days earlier.
How to check scarcity before paying a low-pop premium
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Find the date. Look for when the listing checked the cert (the Fanatics pages show one) and treat any pop figure as true only as of that day.
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Log cert numbers. Record the cert from every public sale you can find and count distinct certs. Don't use cert numbers to guess when a card was graded.
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Go to the grader's report. Check the grader's own population report on the day you bid. Don't rely on the lot title or press coverage.
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Check the other graders. A PSA pop of 2 can sit alongside copies at other companies that PSA's count can't show.
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Find the hard cap. Look for print-run or distribution evidence, such as the 100-per-winner figure here, and compare it with the total graded.
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Ask the seller. Ask the auction house when it pulled the pop, and whether it knows of any resubmissions or crossovers for that card.
What to do this week
If you're bidding on any low-pop promo, discount "pop 1," "pop 2" or "pop 3" language unless it comes with a date. A number in a lot title is a snapshot and doesn't guarantee anything about the future.
If you're deciding whether to grade or resubmit a raw promo, run your own numbers through the card grading break-even calculator. It compares the extra net proceeds from grading using costs you enter yourself. It doesn't predict grades, current prices or returns, so the inputs have to come from your own sold comps.
The $4.88 million sale shows what one buyer paid on one night in October. It doesn't tell you what the next PSA 10 will bring, and if more of the 100 copies get graded, the count in the lot titles will keep rising.
Related reading
Sources
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ICv2, Goldin's 2026 Pokémon 30th Anniversary Auction Rakes Over $28 Million
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Sports Illustrated, Mudkip Leads Pokémon Sales Bonanza to Sweep Weekly TCG Sales
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Sports Illustrated, Daisuke Ochiai Pokémon Promo Becomes Most Valuable Mudkip Card in History
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Otia, Mudkip Card Market Erupts as 2015 Art Academy Promo Sells for $3.72 Million
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Polkastarter Blog, Art Academy Mudkip PSA 10 Sells for $4.88 Million at Goldin
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Collectors Universe Forums, How accurate are the pop reports?
Note: This article contains AI-assisted content and has been reviewed in our editorial workflow.
DISCLAIMER: PureGrail articles are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Collectibles are speculative assets and values can decrease significantly. Always conduct your own research before buying or selling. Past price performance does not indicate future results.
