The 30th Celebration pull rates tracked by collectors so far point to one of the most generous Pokemon TCG sets in years, and the market is repricing fast. Community data compiled from roughly 6,500 opened packs puts Special Illustration Rares at about 1 in 20 packs, according to Sports Illustrated. The same report says the Pikachu ex SIR (Night) sold for as much as $1,250 before release and now sells for about $120. The set (Japanese code M6a) launched worldwide on September 16, 2026, so everything below is a two-day-old picture, not a settled market.
Are there official 30th Celebration pull rates?
No. The Pokemon Company has published structural guarantees for the set, not rarity odds. Samurai Sword Tokyo states that no official pull rate exists for this set in either language. Every rate in this article is community-tracked data, and should be read that way.
What is guaranteed: every pack contains one holo Pikachu from a 30-illustrator subset and a special energy with a YOSHIROTTEN design. English packs carry 5 foil cards plus 1 foil energy; Japanese packs carry 6 foils and retail for ¥360. The Japanese set runs 103 main cards, 20 Art Rares (104 to 123), 10 SARs (124 to 133), 2 Futuristic Rares (Mewtwo ex 134/103 and Mew ex 135/103) and 30 classic reprints (136 to 165). The three RGB Mew secrets (R, G and B versions, art by YOSHIROTTEN) are not officially acknowledged at all.
Where the community odds come from
Two samples are doing most of the work right now.
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@switchstock (about 6,500 packs): the X tracker's numbers, reported by SI on September 17: ex 1:4, Illustration Rare 1:5, Classic Collection 1:10, SIR 1:20, Futuristic Rare 1:117, RGB 1:3,200. SI's report was also syndicated on Yahoo with the same figures.
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DigitalTQ (420 packs): cited by Kotaku, with SIRs at 5.24% (about 1 in 19), Illustration Rares at 1 in 5 versus roughly 1 in 10 in recent sets, ex-or-better above 50% per pack, and Futuristic Rares around 1%.
Where they agree: SIRs land near 5% of packs, and Kotaku puts that at 4 to 5 times the roughly 1 in 80 seen in recent Scarlet and Violet sets. SI makes the same 4 to 5 times comparison against Scarlet and Violet and Mega Evolution sets over the last four years.
Where they don't: the RGB Mew. Switchstock's sample gives 1:3,200, while Kotaku notes a rumored rate of 1 in 20,000. A 420-pack sample cannot resolve a card that rare, and even 6,500 packs only yields a handful of hits at 1:3,200. Treat the RGB number as the least reliable figure in the set.
Tier by tier: odds, prices and status
Prices below are as reported by SI and Kotaku on September 17. We did not have verified live sold comps at publication, and PriceCharting's set page shows different numbers (see the next section). Pull your own sold listings before transacting.
| Rarity | Community odds | Example card | Pre-release or first sale | Reported Sep 17 | Status | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ex | 1:4 (switchstock) | Regular ex cards | Not tracked in our sources | Not tracked in our sources | To watch | | Illustration Rare | 1:5 | IR subset | Not tracked in our sources | Not tracked in our sources | To watch | | Classic Collection | 1:10 | Classic reprints (136 to 165) | Not tracked in our sources | Not tracked in our sources | To watch | | SIR | 1:20 (about 1 in 19 per DigitalTQ) | Pikachu ex SIR (Night) | $1,250 peak, pre-release | About $120 | Falling | | Futuristic Rare | 1:117 (about 1% per DigitalTQ) | Mew ex / Mewtwo ex | About $1,000 | About $150 | Falling, volatile | | RGB secret | 1:3,200 (rumored 1:20,000) | RGB Mew ex | $20,000 first public sale | Floor about $4,000 | Volatile |
One clarification on the headline drop: the $1,250 Pikachu ex SIR (Night) figure was a pre-release peak from a few weeks before launch, not a launch-week price. SNKRDUNK's August 22 preview described a Japanese market above ¥100,000 with a ¥70,000 buyout expectation for the card. Those numbers were set before anyone knew the odds.
The PriceCharting conflict
PriceCharting's listings, as fetched September 18, show the RGB Mew versions at $3,800 to $4,000, Mew ex #158 at $700, Mewtwo ex #157 near $498, Pikachu ex #150 at $460 and Pikachu ex #149 at $420. Those sit well above the SI and Kotaku figures for the Pikachu and FUR cards. Listing aggregators can lag, blend pre-release sales, or number cards differently across languages. In a market this young, that gap is itself a signal: there is no agreed price yet.
Why do the pull rates matter so much for prices?
Supply. At 1 in 20, a collector opening 100 packs should expect about five SIRs; at the Scarlet and Violet era's roughly 1 in 80, the same 100 packs produced about one. When every case yields multiple SIRs, sellers compete with each other within days, and the pre-release prices that assumed scarcity stop holding. The high-frequency tiers (Illustration Rares and SIRs) fall first and furthest because the most copies are hitting the market at once.
The thin tiers: Futuristic Rares and RGB Mew
The Futuristic Rares (about 1 in 117) and the RGB Mew behave differently. With fewer copies, each sale moves the market more, and prices swing on small volume. The RGB Mew ex is the clearest case: a $20,000 first public sale on eBay (seller quantumsportsllc, per SI) was the only reference point, and the floor has since dropped to about $4,000. When early sales are the only comps, the first price is a data point, not a valuation. The FUR drop from about $1,000 to about $150 reported by Kotaku shows the same pattern at a lower tier.
Have 30th Celebration prices leveled off?
No, and it is too early to say they will soon. The set released September 16. A floor has formed when you can see these signals together:
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Stable sold medians over a 7 to 14 day window, not a single day's low.
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Falling active listing counts, meaning new supply is being absorbed rather than piling up.
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A consistent PSA 10 spread once graded copies start selling in volume, which will take weeks given submission turnaround.
Until those show up, label every tier as falling, volatile or to watch.
What to do this week
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Buying SIR singles: waiting costs little. Supply is still arriving and the reported trend is down.
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Selling raw hits: price against current sold listings, not pre-release comps. Early liquidity tends to be the best liquidity in a high-supply set.
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Thinking about grading: run the numbers before you submit. On the base Pikachu #30 from the guaranteed slot, PriceCharting shows about $20.24 ungraded (down about $4.87) versus about $155 in PSA 10. That spread only matters if the card grades a 10 and your all-in cost stays below it. Our card grading break-even calculator compares incremental net proceeds from your own cost inputs; it does not predict grades or future prices.
Is sealed 30th Celebration better than singles?
Generous odds cut both ways. Hit frequency is high, so opening feels rewarding, but a high hit rate also lowers the resale value of any single chase card, which lowers the expected value of ripping specifically for one. Box structure differs by language: according to TCGTalk's 57-box Japanese sample, each Japanese box contains exactly one SAR, while English boxes have no box-level floor. (TCGTalk's English-language page carries a "July 2026" update date for a September set, so we do not rely on its English rates.) PriceCharting lists the Night UPC sealed around $661 and the Day UPC around $612; those are also early numbers.
Watch list: revisit in two weeks
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Pikachu ex SIR, Day and Night versions: does the price hold near reported levels or keep sliding?
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Futuristic Rare Mew ex and Mewtwo ex: does the gap between SI/Kotaku and PriceCharting close?
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RGB Mew ex (R, G, B): does a larger sample settle the odds, and does the roughly $4,000 floor hold?
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UPC sealed, Day and Night: does sealed hold value while singles fall?
We will check sold medians and listing counts on these cards again in about two weeks.
Related reading
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Your Grading Bill Is Not Your Biggest Cost: The True Cost of Grading Cards
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Can You Tell a 30th Celebration Charizard From a Base Set Original?
Sources
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Samurai Sword Tokyo: 30th Celebration Pull Rates, Confirmed vs Reported
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SNKRDUNK Magazine: Pikachu ex SAR (Night Version) Market Predictions (Aug 22, 2026)
Note: This article contains AI-assisted content and has been reviewed in our editorial workflow.
DISCLAIMER: PureGrail articles are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Collectibles are speculative assets and values can decrease significantly. Always conduct your own research before buying or selling. Past price performance does not indicate future results.
